Grain of Salt SF — MSTR scenarios
What would it take for MSTR to reach your target?
Dated starting point · Oct 18, 2026: 848,517 BTC · 422,353,000 basic common shares · Issuer sources
Required NET mNAV
5.86×
Basic-share net mNAV scenario
Target MSTR $1,000BTC $100,000Holdings 1,000,000 BTCamplification 20%
- Modeled common shares
- 460,607,560
- Share-count increase
- +9.06%
- Modeled time
- 0.74 qtr · 0.18 yr
- Residual common backing / USD
- $78,563,300,000
Higher amplification reduces residual backing at these holdings; the required valuation premium rises.
Frozen OTM debt $6,714,000,000 · defined USD assets $5,277,300,000 · retained basis Oct 18, 2026 / Oct 18, 2026; edits are scenario assumptions.
Advanced assumptions · BTC 25%/qtr · shares 12.50%/qtr
0%–50%
25%–75%
Default $6,714,000,000 · Oct 18, 2026 · Source. Zero is an explicit assumption; blank is unknown.
Default $5,277,300,000 · Oct 18, 2026 · Source. Zero is an explicit assumption; blank is unknown.
Debt classification stays frozen; target-price clicks do not convert debt. Modeled share growth excludes separate conversion shares. Defined USD assets are USD Reserve + USD Cash, not all cash balances or unrestricted liquidity.
Strategy model, capital scopes & sources
Exact t = ln(Htarget / H₀) / ln(1 + qBTC); S = S₀ × (1 + qBTC × relative / 100)^t. Growth rates in these formulas are fractions. Default BTC growth 25%/quarter and relative common growth 50% give shares 12.5%/quarter. One quarter is 13 weeks; time is not a forecast, and no historical series is fabricated. Already-reached holdings retain H₀ at time zero.
Residual USD = (1 − A) × BTC/USD × holdings − applicable frozen debt + defined USD assets. Required basic-share net mNAV = target MSTR USD × modeled basic shares / residual USD. Nonpositive residual has no meaningful positive premium. This basic-share scenario is distinct from issuer source-defined diluted-share net mNAV.
A = preferred notional claims / Bitcoin USD value only; excludes debt and dividends. Chosen A applies hypothetically at start and end, not to reported capital. Frozen debt and defined assets are dated assumptions, not future balance forecasts. Preferred claims = A × BTC/USD × holdings. These constraints do not reconcile a financing plan or guarantee future holdings or stock prices.
With debt and assets held fixed, raising A reduces residual backing. Unlike the zero-debt/zero-assets model, 50% → 75% does not exactly double the premium unless debt equals assets.
BTC holdings · Oct 18, 2026: Aggregate BTC holdings, 4:00 p.m. ET During Period October 12–18, 2026: 267 BTC acquired for $22.1M (avg $82,900), funded by $22.0M MSTR ATM proceeds + $0.1M USD Cash. As of October 18, 2026: Aggregate BTC Holdings 848,517 (cost $64.02B, avg $75,446). Reported total used; 267 is not added to 848,250 again. Corroborated by strategy.com/shares 10/18 column read Oct 19.
Basic common shares · Oct 18, 2026: Issuer Basic Shares Outstanding: Class A + B, including pending issuance as defined in footnote 2; not ADSO/FDSO 10/18/2026 column (in '000s): Class A 402,713; Class B 19,640; Basic 422,353 => 422,353,000 (rounded to thousands). Issuer total supersedes a roll-forward: 422,199,000 + 140,872 Oct 12–18 ATM shares (8-K Oct 19) = 422,339,872 would differ by the rounding of both totals. FDSO 426,322 and ADSO 451,933 shown separately, not used here.
Frozen OTM debt · Oct 18, 2026: MIXED BASIS: follows the issuer Oct 18 FDSO, whose in-the-money test uses the issuer’s Oct 16 4:00 p.m. market data (2030A @$149.77 excluded). The dashboard share price is still the Oct 15 $151.29 close, which is above $149.77; no verified Oct 16 close is stored, so the two are not reconciled and no conversion is re-derived.
Defined USD assets · Oct 18, 2026: Defined USD assets = $4.83B USD Reserve (rounded) + $447.3M USD Cash as of Oct 18 (8-K Oct 19). USD Cash fell after $193.1M STRC buyback and $0.1M BTC; credit page shows $5,280M (rounding). Issuer definition, separate from GAAP CCE; do not add CCE again.
USD Reserve + USD Cash includes the issuer-defined reserve once; GAAP CCE and ordinary operating cash are not added again. Debt follows retained issuer FDSO classification using dated market conditions, not target-price-only conversion eligibility. No conversion debt is removed while adding its shares.