Grain of Salt SF

Grain of Salt SF — ASST scenarios

What endpoint Net mMAV supports your target?

Section 1 · Target ASST price / USD
Section 1 · Ending BTC price / USD
Section 1 · Ending BTC holdings
Section 1 · Preferred amplification
Section 1 · Net mMAV for common-share issuance (issuance valuation assumption)

Dashboard = Four Layers Net mMAV 1.63×: ASST $25.64 (2026-10-15) · BTC $82,330 fixed reference (2026-10-15) · claims/diluted shares Oct 13, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Mixed dates, not live.

Required endpoint Net mMAV

2.38×

Issuance at 1.63×

Ending common shares
178,592,608
Dilution
+43.95%
Time to selected BTC holdings
4.48 qtr · 1.12 yr
Residual common NAV
$7,500,000,000
Ending preferred claims
$7,500,000,000
Common issuance proceeds
$2,391,994,027
NAV / share start → end
$14.84 → $42

The target price changes only this endpoint requirement, not the financing path. Issuance Net mMAV is a valuation assumption.

Starting assumptions (fixed): 36,818 BTC · 124,064,126 basic shares · Oct 16, 2026 · Source · starting BTC $100,000 (hypothetical) · debt $0 · USD assets $0 · BTC holdings growth 25%/qtr

ASST convention: debt $0 and USD assets $0; cash excluded by the existing method is not added.

Issuance Net mMAV used: Dashboard 1.63× — Four Layers dashboard Net mMAV 1.63× · ASST $25.64 (Oct 15, 2026 close) · BTC $82,330 (Oct 15, 2026 fixed reference) · holdings/claims/diluted shares Oct 13, 2026–Oct 16, 2026 · mixed dates, not live

How much BTC is needed if Net mMAV stays constant?

Section 2 · Target ASST price / USD
Section 2 · Ending BTC price / USD
Section 2 · Preferred amplification
Section 2 · Constant Net mMAV (issuance + endpoint) (issuance valuation assumption)

Dashboard = Four Layers Net mMAV 1.63×: ASST $25.64 (2026-10-15) · BTC $82,330 fixed reference (2026-10-15) · claims/diluted shares Oct 13, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Mixed dates, not live.

Required ending BTC holdings

266,988 BTC

At constant 1.63×

Additional BTC
230,170
Ending common shares
326,288,155
Dilution
+163.00%
Time to required holdings
8.88 qtr · 2.22 yr
Implied endpoint price
$100
Residual common NAV
$20,024,127,389
Ending preferred claims
$20,024,127,389

Constant Net mMAV is a valuation assumption.

Starting assumptions (fixed): 36,818 BTC · 124,064,126 basic shares · Oct 16, 2026 · Source · starting BTC $100,000 (hypothetical) · debt $0 · USD assets $0 · BTC holdings growth 25%/qtr

ASST convention: debt $0 and USD assets $0; cash excluded by the existing method is not added.

Issuance Net mMAV used: Dashboard 1.63× — Four Layers dashboard Net mMAV 1.63× · ASST $25.64 (Oct 15, 2026 close) · BTC $82,330 (Oct 15, 2026 fixed reference) · holdings/claims/diluted shares Oct 13, 2026–Oct 16, 2026 · mixed dates, not live

Financing model conventions

One shared engine runs both sections. Holdings move from H₀ to H₁ in 2,000 equal log-holdings steps; BTC price moves geometrically from the starting to the ending assumption over the same steps (an assumed path, not a forecast). Time = ln(H₁/H₀) / ln(1 + g).

Each step: BTC purchase cost = geometric-midpoint price × ΔH (not the change in BTC market value). Preferred notional rebalances to A × B × H at par, no fees, so its change is A × Δ(B × H); a decrease is a redemption that must be funded. The remaining need is paid from modeled cash, then by issuing common at the selected Net mMAV × pre-issuance NAV/share, after revaluing existing BTC and before issuing. Surplus preferred proceeds stay as modeled cash; no buybacks.

Residual common NAV = B × H − preferred − frozen debt + defined USD assets + modeled cash. Required endpoint Net mMAV = target × shares / residual. Section 2 finds the lowest holdings ≥ H₀ where Net mMAV × residual / shares meets the target, scanning up to the lower of 1,000× starting holdings or 21,000,000 BTC (theoretical total supply; actual available BTC is lower). With no added holdings, the price move has no modeled timing. Financing identity: purchases = common proceeds + preferred change − modeled cash.

Gross financing scenario only: excludes dividends, interest, operating costs, fees and taxes; not a full cash-flow forecast. Basic-share Net mMAV, distinct from issuer-defined diluted mNAV.

Original 100K / 200K BTC milestone tools

Grain of Salt SF · @GrainofSaltSF · Strive Milestones

Strive’s path to 100K Bitcoin

Milestone date, modeled share price and reverse share math — one shared set of assumptions.

Educational scenario model

$

Dated fallback $85,000 (Sep 24, 2026); spot fetch unavailable.

Starting BTC
36,818 · as of Oct 16, 2026
Starting basic common shares
124,064,126 · as of Oct 16, 2026

1 · BTC milestone

Modeled arrival at 100,000 BTC

Target
%

Bear/Bull = 0.75×/1.5× base.

2 · Forward share-price model

Modeled ASST price at 100,000 BTC · Base

Starting reference (fixed)

$37.84

Gross mNAV 1.5 × starting BTC value ÷ starting shares. Not a market quote.

Milestone price

$37.84

0.0% vs reference · Dec 6, 2027

0%

Share count grows 25.00%/qtr vs BTC 25.00%/qtr.

1.50×

Bear

$37.84

Apr 3, 2028

337.0M shares (+171.6%)

Base

$37.84

Dec 6, 2027

337.0M shares (+171.6%)

Bull

$37.84

Aug 2, 2027

337.0M shares (+171.6%)

Common shares: 124,064,126 today → 336,965,957 at the milestone (+171.6% dilution).

3 · Reverse calculator

Shares needed for a desired price at 100,000 BTC

$

Following the modeled milestone price.

Gross mNAVRequired basic common sharesvs 124,064,126 today
1.0×224,643,971+81.1%
1.5×336,965,957+171.6%
3.0×673,931,914+443.2%

SATS IPO closed Oct 20. Latest verified BTC holdings remain as of Oct 16; no future purchase assumed. Gross mNAV only — cash, debt, preferreds and amplification are excluded; formulas below. SATS announcement

Disclosed holdings and modeled path to 100,000 BTC

Y-axis scale

Solid orange: issuer-disclosed totals (steps at disclosure as-of dates; no transaction dates inferred). Dashed: selected modeled path from the Oct 19, 2026 filing anchor; faint lines are the other cases. Shaded area is modeled future.

Confirmed holdings
36,818 BTC
As of Oct 16, 2026 · disclosed Oct 19, 2026
Remaining to 100K
63,182 BTC
36.8% of the way
Modeled date · Base
Dec 6, 2027
59 weeks from filing
Modeled starting holdings
36,818 BTC
Equals confirmed holdings

Historical pace (benchmark only)

Quarter-end holdings from the issuer ledger. This is context, not the selected assumption.

QuarterStart BTCEnd BTCQoQ growth
Sep 30, 2025 → Dec 31, 20255,885.597,626.8129.58%
Dec 31, 2025 → Mar 31, 2026Includes Semler 5,048 BTC7,626.8113,627.9378.68%
Mar 31, 2026 → Jun 30, 202613,627.9319,863.9245.76%
Jun 30, 2026 → Sep 30, 202619,863.9228,000.4940.96%
Arithmetic mean of four quarters48.75% (≈49%)

The Jan 16, 2026 Semler merger added acquisition BTC once and materially inflates Q1 2026. The ≈49% mean is not used as a default prediction.

Purchase and acquisition history

As ofTypeBTC addedTotal BTC (ledger)CostSource
Oct 16, 2026Purchase1,223.4836,818.41$100,000,000
Oct 13, 2026Purchase2,822.2735,594.93$235,000,000
Oct 9, 2026Purchase3,310.6432,772.66$279,750,000
Oct 2, 2026Purchase1,461.5329,462.02$123,789,417
Sep 30, 2026Purchase538.7028,000.49$45,075,000
Sep 25, 2026Purchase1,106.6127,461.79$94,500,000
Sep 18, 2026Purchase1,355.1326,355.18$107,700,000
Sep 11, 2026Purchase468.9525,000.05$36,556,433
Sep 4, 2026Purchase1,374.8624,531.09$109,000,000
Aug 28, 2026Purchase1,800.3023,156.23$143,000,000

Ledger totals keep issuer decimals (latest 36,818.41); the projection uses the filing-rounded 36,818. The initial row is the first disclosed stack; its BTC added is unknown, not zero.

Math & assumptions

Formula and the 13-week quarter
Weekly rate = (1 + q)^(1/13) − 1. Holdings after w weeks: H(w) = H₀ × (1 + q)^(w/13), with H₀ = 36,818 BTC. One quarter = 13 weeks = 91 days.
Target week solver
First whole week reaching the target: w = ceil(ln(target / H₀) / ln(1 + weekly rate)), with a 1e-12 tolerance so exact boundaries are not pushed a week later by rounding. If H₀ already meets the target, w = 0; at 0% growth the target is unreachable.
Forward share price (gross mNAV)
Fixed reference = H₀ × BTC price × 1.5 ÷ S₀ (ignores both sliders). Shares S(w) = S₀ × (1 + q_shares)^(w/13), q_shares = q_BTC × (1 + adjustment/100). Price = H × BTC price × mNAV ÷ S. Equal BTC and share growth keeps the price flat. Gross mNAV excludes cash, debt, preferreds and amplification; no future premium relationship is assumed.
Exact-target pricing
Price uses the exact time the target is reached, n = ln(target/H₀) ÷ ln(1 + q_BTC) fractional quarters, so H = exactly the target. The displayed date is the whole week w = ceil(13n), so there is no overshoot mismatch.
Reverse calculator
Required basic common shares = target BTC × BTC price × mNAV ÷ desired price, for mNAV 1.0, 1.5 and 3.0. Fewer shares than today requires a reduction, which is not guaranteed. The default desired price follows the unrounded modeled price until you edit it.
Scenarios
Bear = 0.75 × base, Base = base, Bull = 1.5 × base. Editing the base updates all three.
As-of date versus filing anchor
Holdings are as of Oct 16, 2026; they were disclosed Oct 19, 2026. Modeled dates = filing date + 7 × weeks, in UTC. They do not slide as the calendar moves — only new inputs or a new verified filing change them. Dates are modeled, not promises.
Why 25%
25% per quarter is a starting assumption chosen for this model: roughly half of the ≈49% arithmetic average of the past four quarters (48.75% retained), deliberately rounded — not an exact half, not Strive’s historical rate, not issuer guidance and not BTC Yield.
What drives achievable growth (not separately modeled)
Growth depends on financing — ASST common equity, SATA and SATS preferreds — and on Bitcoin’s price, the company’s valuation and market access. Raised capital also funds cash and dividend reserves and costs, so fundraising ≠ BTC purchased. The $630M gross SATS proceeds (closed Oct 20, 2026) are not converted to BTC; the model waits for a disclosed purchase.
Holdings growth is not BTC Yield
This model grows total BTC. BTC Yield measures change in BTC per diluted share, which can differ when shares are issued.
Semler is one-off history
The Jan 16, 2026 Semler merger added 5,048 BTC by acquisition; it is not a recurring purchase pace.
Independence
An independent educational model of BTC holdings — not a Strive forecast, stock-price forecast or investment advice. Mathematical method credit: Treasury North Strategy 1M BTC tool; reimplemented independently.
Sources