Grain of Salt SF
MSTR vs. ASST
STRATEGY · MSTR
Selected stock-price target
$1,000
Issuance Assumption Net mNAV
1.18×
Required Endpoint Net mNAV
3.46×
- Ending BTC holdings (selected)
- 1,250,000
- Additional BTC
- 401,483
- BTC holdings growth
- +47.32%
- Common-share dilution
- +21.65%
- Ending common shares
- 513,811,127
- Residual common NAV
- $148,358,400,000
- Ending preferred claims
- $37,500,000,000
- Common issuance proceeds
- $21,457,738,992
- Holdings accumulation assumption
- 16.26 qtr · holdings accumulation assumption, not a Bitcoin-price forecast
- Actual starting preferred
- $13,347,000,000
- Starting preferred / BTC value
- 19.6622460%
- Forward total preferred amplification target
- 20.00%
- Ending preferred / BTC value
- 20.0000000%
- Net new preferred
- $24,153,000,000
- New common shares
- 91,456,127
- Modeled cash retained
- $0
BTC growth is total holdings growth from 848,517 starting BTC, not BTC per share. Existing preferred dollar claims are preserved, not a constant historical percentage: the forward target only adds preferred when target × BTC value exceeds existing claims (no redemptions). Required Net mNAV path resolution 64,000 steps; half-resolution change 0.0000041.
Start: 848,517 BTC · 422,355,000 basic shares · actual preferred $13,347,000,000 (2026-10-26) · starting BTC $80,000 · Oct 25, 2026 (shares Oct 25 issuer total; no ATM sales Oct 19–25) · source
STRIVE · ASST
Selected stock-price target
$200
Issuance Assumption Net mNAV
1.67×
Required Endpoint Net mNAV
4.43×
- Ending BTC holdings (selected)
- 100,000
- Additional BTC
- 57,000
- BTC holdings growth
- +132.56%
- Common-share dilution
- +30.49%
- Ending common shares
- 166,154,720
- Residual common NAV
- $7,500,000,000
- Ending preferred claims
- $7,500,000,000
- Common issuance proceeds
- $1,228,329,928
- Holdings accumulation assumption
- 3.78 qtr · holdings accumulation assumption, not a Bitcoin-price forecast
- Actual starting preferred
- $2,103,017,600
- Starting preferred / BTC value
- 61.1342326%
- Forward total preferred amplification target
- 50.00%
- Ending preferred / BTC value
- 50.0000000%
- Net new preferred
- $5,396,982,400
- New common shares
- 38,826,374
- Modeled cash retained
- $0
BTC growth is total holdings growth from 43,000 starting BTC, not BTC per share. Existing preferred dollar claims are preserved, not a constant historical percentage: the forward target only adds preferred when target × BTC value exceeds existing claims (no redemptions). Required Net mNAV path resolution 64,000 steps; half-resolution change 0.0000080.
Start: 43,000 BTC · 127,328,346 basic shares · actual preferred $2,103,017,600 (2026-10-23) · starting BTC $80,000 · Oct 23, 2026 · source
Ending Shared Bitcoin Price For MSTR and ASST
Hypothetical ending price. Starting BTC $80,000 is the dated weekly baseline (2026-10-29), manually maintained, not live; geometric path.
STRATEGY · MSTR ASSUMPTIONS
STRIVE · ASST ASSUMPTIONS
METHOD, EXCLUSIONS AND SOURCES
Oct 29, 2026 method note: starting BTC price is a dated, manually maintained weekly $80,000 baseline (Custom override allowed), not live; starting preferred claims are the actual sourced dollar claims (ASST $2,103,017,600 as of Oct 23, filed Oct 26; MSTR $13,347,000,000 observed Oct 26), preserved independently of the forward target. The retired convention modeled starting claims as A × $100,000 × starting holdings. Gross hypothetical financing, not a reserve-aware cash-flow forecast; assumes continued capital access at the selected issuance Net mNAV and preferred at par, with no redemptions.
Dividends, interest, fees, operating costs and taxes are excluded. Future dividend-reserve allocations, replenishment and spending are NOT simulated. No claim that dividends are fully covered for existing claims or all future modeled issuance; replenishment plans are not guarantees.
ASST: USD assets = $0 is a gross-model convention, not a claim of zero reported cash. The Dashboard issuance reference includes reported cash + STRC market value under its separate dated basis.
MSTR: starting defined USD assets and debt are frozen at the sourced model inputs; no future reserve movements, cash spending or dividend funding is modeled.
Strive cash history · Strategy cash history and sources/uses
Each column is the existing Section 1 calculator for that company at its own inputs; only the ending BTC price is shared. Required endpoint Net mNAV = target × modeled common shares ÷ residual common NAV.
Financing: starts from each issuer's actual sourced preferred dollar claims; P_next = max(P_previous, forward target × B × H) at par with no redemptions; remaining purchase cost funded from modeled cash, then common at that company's selected issuance Net mNAV; geometric BTC price path from the shared starting price ($80,000) to the shared ending price. Oct 29, 2026 method: starting BTC = dated weekly $80,000 baseline (or Custom), not live; starting preferred = actual sourced dollar claims, unchanged by the forward target. Gross hypothetical financing; capital access assumed. Preferred at par: P_next = max(P_prev, target × B × H), no redemptions; above-target claims persist and catch-up surplus stays modeled cash. Common at selected issuance Net mNAV; geometric BTC path. Excludes dividends, interest, fees, costs and taxes. Future reserve allocations, replenishment and spending NOT simulated; no future dividend-coverage guarantee. Not a forecast. Cash sources/uses: grainofsaltsf.com/research-lab.
Dashboard issuance Net mNAV uses the independent dated Four Layers price × source AFD/FDSO shares ÷ (source BTC holdings × fixed BTC reference + defined USD assets − applicable preferred − OTM debt), at full precision. Each source caret shows its exact formula, inputs and dates. This is a user-selectable issuance valuation assumption, not live or necessarily an issuer website quote. ASST scenario USD assets $0 and engine basic shares differ from the Dashboard basis (cash + STRC and source AFD/FDSO); MSTR scenario USD assets remain frozen. Starting BTC overrides change modeled starting asset value and ratios, not the sourced Dashboard reference.
MSTR: 848,517 BTC, 422,355,000 basic shares (Oct 25, 2026 (shares Oct 25 issuer total; no ATM sales Oct 19–25)); actual preferred $13,347,000,000 (Actual total preferred $13,347,000,000 observed Oct 26, 2026 on the issuer credit/risk page (rounded $1M).); debt $6,714,000,000, USD assets $5,072,400,000; holdings growth 2.41%/qtr (affects time only). Strategy convention: frozen OTM debt (Oct 18) and defined USD Reserve + USD Cash dated Oct 25, 2026; no conversion forecast. Source
ASST: 43,000 BTC, 127,328,346 basic shares (Oct 23, 2026); actual preferred $2,103,017,600 (Actual SATA + SATS stated claims $2,103,017,600 as of Oct 23, 2026 (8-K filed Oct 26).); debt $0, USD assets $0; holdings growth 25.00%/qtr (affects time only). ASST convention: debt $0 and USD assets $0; cash excluded by the existing method is not added. Source
Hypothetical scenario, not a forecast or investment advice.